The surge, is it really working?

I hear quite a bit of right-wing commentators and pundits on US TV talking about how the surge is working and how the "war" (which should be identified as an occupation, but most Americans could not bare to think of themselves in such a manner) will soon be "won".

Its interesting to note what exactly is going on in Iraq. Most of the bloodshed occurs in Baghdad and the areas immediately surrounding it. The primary reason for this is that it’s the largest, most important and the most mixed city. For the last 5 years shia and sunny gangs have been fighting each other for street control. Criminal gangs and insurgence have been adding to the misery as well.

General Petraeus and his surge came in at an interesting time. Most of the neighborhoods a year ago were already homogenised and clear sectarian lines drawn. A great deal of people who could have been killed are already dead or long ago left the area for safer places. What the general did was simply to solidify this system by erecting walls, creating gated suburbs where only its residents were allowed, and allowing the gangs some autonomy in operation as long as they stayed in their own territory and more or less behaved. Overall he partitioned the only mixed area of Iraq. This may have negative effects in the future.

When the surge begins to be scaled back the gates will be opened and the violence will continue. The only way to stop this happening is to move ahead on political front and get the government and the economy moving again. Unfortunately this has not happened. The law governing division of profits from the oil has not be put in place. the police and the army are incredibly sectarian, Iraq's infrastructure remains shattered (electricity is available only few hours a day for example) and most people are too scared to go to the shops or to open up a business. Schools, the future of Iraq, remain in a terrible, almost "African" state. Worse Iraq is slowly but surely sliding into cleptocracy and cronyism.

So when I hear someone say "the surge is working, we are winning" I always tend to think of that someone as totally ignorant or simply as lying. Iraq is in much worse shape than most are lead to believe. A fall in violence masks much bigger problems ahead.

Watch this space.